The article discusses the challenge of maintaining the 1.5°C global warming limit as emissions rise. Researchers propose a new indicator, “additional carbon accountability,” to assign responsibility to nations based on their historical emissions. Major emitters like the EU, China, and the USA need to enhance their targets to meet climate commitments amid significant economic implications for achieving carbon dioxide removal.
Thomas Hahn, Robert Höglund, and Mikael Karlsson, experts from Stockholm University and Uppsala University, address the ongoing challenge of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in light of recent assessments suggesting the target’s potential failure due to rising emissions and insufficient commitments. Their study published in Nature Communications explores assigning responsibilities to countries for emissions reduction based on the Common But Differentiated Responsibility and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) principle established under the UNFCCC.
The CBDR-RC principle posits that while all countries are responsible for combating climate change, their obligations vary according to their historical emissions and capacity. By developing a new metric called “additional carbon accountability,” the study compares historical and future emissions, elucidating country-specific obligations beyond current norms. If existing national targets are maintained, the 1.5°C fossil carbon budget may exceed by 576 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂).
To achieve this critical goal, major emitters, including the European Union, China, and the United States, must bolster their current commitments through more aggressive mitigation strategies and enhanced carbon dioxide removal techniques. For instance, the EU would need to offset or finance an additional 48 GtCO₂; China faces an additional burden of 150 GtCO₂, while the USA’s is 167 GtCO₂.
The study emphasizes that existing international frameworks do not clarify how to enact fairness principles regarding emissions responsibilities. The new indicator serves as a significant tool for identifying what various nations must do to fill the emissions gap, thereby informing the contentious climate financing discussions at UNFCCC COP meetings. It further indicates that high-income countries carry substantial carbon debts, with a notable proportion of upcoming emissions attributed to upper-middle-income nations.
Countries with historically high emissions like the US and EU must pursue ambitious targets alongside carbon dioxide removal to meet their commitments. The assessment shows that nations with considerable future emissions, such as China and Iran, could theoretically fulfill their accountability by adopting stricter reduction measures. Hence, national accountability becomes essential in addressing climate challenges, transcending the conventional divide between developed and developing nations.
Estimating costs associated with Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) outlines significant economic implications, especially for developing countries. The projected costs to meet carbon accountability based on a $150 per tonne CO₂ scenario reveal staggering figures, such as 1,200% of Iran’s GDP and 530% for Russia. High-income economies are also expected to bear noticeable burdens, highlighting the urgent need for collective accountability.
Despite the evidence presented, political will remains a barrier. High-income countries exhibit a tendency to focus on achieving current targets, neglecting discussions on historical carbon liabilities while international agreements on implementing the CBDR-RC remain elusive. Countries like Russia and Iran are unlikely to embrace significant emissions reductions soon, posing additional challenges. However, the authors exhibit optimism as shifts in political landscapes could alter these dynamics.
This study underscores the significance of granular accountability in the quest to maintain global temperature increases below 1.5°C. The additional carbon accountability metric may serve as a catalyst for increased political pressure on nations reluctant to commit to stringent emissions reductions, ultimately fostering a more equitable climate response.
The study highlights the pressing need for countries to identify their responsibilities in climate change mitigation through the new indicator of “additional carbon accountability.” Major emitters, such as the European Union, China, and the USA, must intensify their targets and strategies to meet the critical 1.5°C limit, while recognizing that political inertia and historic emissions complicate efforts. Ultimately, this research aims to enhance individual country accountability and foster more strategic negotiations at global climate forums.
Original Source: www.climatechangenews.com
