China missed its 2024 climate target with a slight increase in emissions, as coal continues to dominate its energy supply despite record renewable energy growth. Carbon intensity fell by 3.4 percent but was below the target of 3.9 percent. Analysts express concerns regarding China’s ability to meet its ambitious climate goals, highlighting the dominant role of the industrial sector and coal in the energy mix.
China did not meet a significant climate target in 2024, as indicated by official data revealing a slight increase in emissions. Despite substantial additions of renewable energy, coal remains prevalent in the country’s energy mix, compromising progress in achieving commitments under the Paris climate agreement. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 3.4 percent decrease in carbon intensity, falling short of the official goal of 3.9 percent, and lagging in achieving an 18-percent reduction target from 2020 to 2025.
The observed rise in carbon emissions, although small compared to previous increases, raises questions about whether China has reached peak emissions ahead of its 2030 goal. Analysts have expressed concern regarding the feasibility of China meeting its pledge to reduce carbon intensity by 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. According to Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, to achieve this, carbon dioxide intensity must decrease by 22 percent between 2026 and 2030.
Despite being the leading emitter of greenhouse gases, China is simultaneously a prominent force in renewable energy. The nation aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. Analysts suggest that factors such as slowing economic growth along with rapid renewable energy installations may indicate that emissions have leveled off, although a definitive assessment remains contingent on future data.
David Fishman from the Lantau Group highlighted the ongoing reliance on coal, which will continue to expand slowly until significant capacity from nuclear and hydro power comes online around 2030. The robust growth of China’s industrial sector poses challenges to achieving its climate objectives, with Muyi Yang from Ember asserting that industrial expansion is driving energy demand that outweighs the growth of clean energy infrastructure.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 4.3 percent increase in total energy consumption compared to the previous year. Coal accounts for more than half of China’s energy supply, although renewable sources have seen notable growth recently. Yang indicated that China is nearing a point where all additional electricity demand could be met through renewables, suggesting that coal power will eventually decrease in absolute terms.
Future emissions and energy goals are set to be addressed in China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030, with an announcement expected later this year. Additionally, China was supposed to submit updated emissions targets under the Paris Agreement; however, it has missed this deadline, alongside many other nations, with expectations that submissions will occur within the year.
In summary, China has fallen short of its climate targets for 2024, reporting an increase in emissions while relying heavily on coal, despite advancements in renewable energy. The country’s report on carbon intensity and energy consumption highlights ongoing challenges and the need for future reforms. Analyzing future data will be crucial in determining if China can meet its emissions peak and adhere to its commitments under the Paris Agreement.
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