Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa aligns himself with populist leaders like Donald Trump as he tackles rising crime in a country facing unprecedented violence. His militarized approach, termed “Plan Fénix,” shows echoes of El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. With an election looming that poses risks to established political movements, Noboa’s governance might alter the political dynamics not just in Ecuador, but across Latin America.
Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa’s attendance at Donald Trump’s inauguration emphasized his alignment with populist and aggressive governance styles. At 37 years old, Noboa disrupts Ecuador’s political landscape through his strong stance against crime and close ties to Trump’s political tactics. Noboa, a political heir from a prominent banana family, capitalized on Ecuadorians’ dissatisfaction to secure election victory in 2023 and is again a frontrunner as the incumbent.
Noboa’s recent electoral race resulted in a technical tie, necessitating a runoff against Luisa González after both candidates received about 44 percent of votes. Ecuador has faced violence from organized crime, with a surge in drug trafficking-related incidents attributed to its geographical position between Colombia and Peru. Consequently, a notable increase in Ecuadorian migration to the U.S. has been reported, particularly marked by over 124,000 encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border in 2024.
In his short term, Noboa has declared war on organized crime using a hardline approach, which has resonated with voters. His efforts in 2024, including significant arrests and drug confiscations, demonstrate his commitment to tackling security issues. However, while violent deaths decreased initially, a resurgence in violence indicates deeper problems persist within the country.
Noboa’s “Plan Fénix” mobilizes military efforts to combat crime, exemplifying a shift towards militarization in public safety. He mirrors strategies utilized by El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, aiming to reinforce control over criminal organizations. Despite initial improvements, experts caution that these measures alone are insufficient without addressing systemic corruption and economic instability.
Noboa has expressed intentions to align his administration with Trump’s policies, such as imposing tariffs on Mexico to mirror U.S. leadership. His controversial actions, like the military raid on the Mexican embassy to capture a former vice president, have been deemed politically motivated yet popular domestically. His stance on immigration policies aligns closely with Trump’s directives, raising concerns about the potential direction of future U.S.-Ecuador relations.
The emergence of Noboa’s National Democratic Action party signals a potential decline for correísmo, which has dominated politics in Ecuador for years. If Noboa wins the upcoming election, it would represent a significant shift in power dynamics. However, concerns about his consolidation of power and bypassing legal norms persist, sparking fears of potential electoral fraud.
Noboa pushes for pro-business reforms to stimulate Ecuador’s economy and intends to adopt a more aggressive stance on organized crime in the future. His capability to govern effectively could hinge on the outcomes of concurrent legislative elections, with a powerful ADN presence potentially easing political tensions.
Noboa’s presidency and the upcoming elections signify a broader political shift across Latin America, as he might align with right-leaning leaders in the region. The stakes are high for Ecuador, with widespread anxieties regarding whether his robust approach to security will yield sustainable peace or exacerbate the ongoing crisis.
President Daniel Noboa’s rise in Ecuador reflects a significant shift in the political landscape, adopting populist strategies and aggressive security measures reminiscent of Donald Trump’s governance. His hardline approach to crime continues to resonate with voters, yet the resurgence of violence and potential overreach of power raises important concerns. Noboa’s leadership could alter the trajectory of Ecuadorian politics, potentially signaling a broader trend towards right-wing governance in Latin America, while the question of long-term stability and effectiveness remains.
Original Source: www.newsweek.com
