A new study in Nature Cities reveals that rising global temperatures could increase urban fire incidents significantly by 2100. If global warming exceeds 4 degrees Celsius, approximately 300,000 fire-related deaths may occur, alongside over one million injuries. Limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius could halve these impacts. The research indicates potential rises in outdoor and vehicle fires, particularly in New Zealand, necessitating improved fire prevention strategies.
Recent research published in Nature Cities indicates that climate change significantly elevates the risk of urban fires globally in the coming decades. This study, which analyzed fire data and temperatures from over 2,800 cities across 20 nations, suggests that surpassing a 4 degrees Celsius increase in global warming could lead to as many as 300,000 fire-related fatalities and over a million injuries by the year 2100.
The study forecasts a 22.2% increase in outdoor fires and an 11.6% rise in vehicular fires, while building fires may experience a decline of 4.6% by 2100 under high-emission scenarios. Specifically, for each 1 degree Celsius increase in air temperature, vehicular fires are anticipated to rise by 3.3%, with outdoor fires increasing by 6.9%.
The strongest correlation between fires and climate change was identified in New Zealand, where it is projected that urban fires could rise by 40% by 2100 if warming exceeds 4 degrees Celsius. The researchers emphasize that their findings may help formulate new fire prevention strategies, including improved management of fire fuel.
It is important to note that this analysis does not include data from Africa and South America, and may not adequately consider the impact of rising electric vehicle usage on vehicle fire rates.
In summary, the findings from the study underscore the critical link between climate change and the rising incidence of urban fires, emphasizing the potential for significant human tolls as temperatures continue to increase. The research highlights the need for urgent action to limit global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius to mitigate these risks and suggests the potential for enhanced fire prevention measures to address these escalating threats. The study serves as a crucial reminder that without effective climate action, urban environments may face increasing hazards from fire-related incidents in the future.
Original Source: www.aa.com.tr
