The IMF anticipates strong economic growth in Guyana, driven by oil and non-oil sectors, with GDP expected to rise by over 10 percent in 2025. The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic stability and sustainable fiscal policies amid risks such as inflation and external shocks. Continued inclusive growth strategies are recommended to support poverty reduction.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts vigorous growth in Guyana’s economy, spurred by advancements in both the oil and non-oil sectors, as noted in their preliminary report following the conclusion of the 2025 Article IV Mission. The IMF characterized the nation’s economic transformation as progressing robustly, with a specific focus on the expanding Oil and Gas Sector contributing significantly to this growth.
In terms of figures, the IMF anticipates that Guyana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will experience an increase of approximately 10¼ percent, alongside a predicted growth of 13 percent within the non-oil economy. The team attributed a substantial part of this growth to rising oil production, strong non-oil performance, and extensive public infrastructure investment, projecting an impressive average real GDP growth of 47 percent between 2022 and 2024.
Despite these strong growth metrics, the IMF cautioned that inflation rates may rise to around 4 percent by the end of 2025, compared to nearly 3 percent at the end of 2024. The fiscal outlook appears positive, with expectations that the budget deficit will decline from 7.3 percent of GDP to just below 5 percent in 2025, as increased oil revenues will counterbalance anticipated spending increases.
Moreover, the IMF forecasts a decrease in the current account surplus from 24½ percent of GDP in 2024 to about 9 percent in 2025 due to the import of a fourth oil Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel. The medium-term economic forecast remains favorable, expecting an average growth rate of 14 percent for the next five years, bolstered by strong oil production and an expanding non-oil sector primarily in construction and services.
However, the report highlighted risks such as overheating pressures that could elevate inflation and enhance real exchange rate appreciation if not properly managed. Commodity price volatility and climate shocks may also pose potential threats to inflation and overall macroeconomic stability. Thus, the IMF called on the Guyanese authorities to uphold macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability while enhancing inclusive growth initiatives.
The IMF advised maintaining a vigilant approach to monitoring macroeconomic trends and recommended additional targeted social transfers to support inclusive growth further. The mission, conducted between February 2024 and March 7, 2025, involved extensive consultations with government officials, including Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo and Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh, along with other stakeholders in the economy.
In summary, the IMF’s report underscores Guyana’s dynamic economic transformation, fueled by significant developments in the oil sector and robust growth in the non-oil economy. While the growth prospects are promising, caution is advised to manage risks related to overheating and external market volatility. Continued fiscal sustainability and targeted social interventions will be crucial to ensuring that the benefits of this growth extend to all sectors of society, aligning with Guyana’s sustainable development goals.
Original Source: newssourcegy.com
