Ecuador’s incumbent president Daniel Noboa is advocating for foreign military forces to assist in combating escalating crime and drug trafficking as the country approaches elections. Following a notable rise in violence and homicide rates, Noboa’s proposals draw on past U.S. military assistance plans like “Plan Colombia.” However, experts caution against heavy militarization, stressing the need for social policies to address underlying issues like poverty and inequality to foster long-term stability.
As Ecuador approaches its second round of presidential elections on April 13, incumbent Daniel Noboa has triggered controversy by proposing the inclusion of foreign military special forces in the country’s battle against drug trafficking and organized crime. This initiative follows Noboa’s efforts to amend the constitution to allow foreign military bases in response to the escalating violence in Ecuador.
Since Noboa assumed office in October 2023, Ecuador has experienced alarming spikes in homicide rates, becoming the most violent country in Latin America with 1,300 murders reported in the first 50 days of 2025 alone. The nation, strategically situated between Colombia and Peru, the world’s largest cocaine producers, has seen a surge in drug trafficking, facilitated by powerful criminal organizations exploiting the nation’s vulnerabilities.
In light of Ecuador’s deteriorating security, U.S. security analysts have proposed a “Plan Colombia” for Ecuador, modelled after a successful U.S. military and counternarcotics aid initiative in Colombia. This plan could replicate the reductions in crime observed in Colombian cities, devastated by similar violence before the aid was implemented.
The Biden administration has acknowledged Ecuador’s intensified conflict with organized crime, indicating a commitment to support Noboa’s administration with military and intelligence resources. This support includes a bilateral “status of forces” agreement (SOFA) permitting U.S. military personnel immunities similar to diplomats, allowing for a wide range of cooperative actions against crime and drug trafficking.
In July 2024, Matrix Aviation Inc. registered as a foreign agent to assist Noboa’s administration in acquiring U.S. funds for military initiatives against crime. Defense Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo, with a background in counter-terrorism training, has sought to leverage these foreign military financing programs despite lacking formal military experience.
Noboa is actively courting support from the Trump administration to bolster his reelection chances and endorse further U.S. military backing amidst escalating violence. Political tensions in Ecuador are evident, as some lawmakers urge voters to reject progressive candidate Luisa Gonzalez, viewed as a potential threat to Noboa’s agenda and U.S. interests.
Although crime rates reportedly fell during Noboa’s first year, there has been widespread criticism of the ongoing security crisis, leading to a drop in his approval ratings. Several “states-of exception” have been declared since Correa’s presidency, revealing pervasive militarization and ongoing instability in multiple regions of Ecuador.
Experts suggest the next elected leader prioritize state presence in neglected areas and social policies aimed at addressing poverty rather than an increased foreign military footprint. Investment in education and youth development may prove more effective than a purely militarized strategy to combat crime.
While debates regarding U.S. military presence continue, the economic context poses significant challenges. Ecuador’s recent decisions, such as the agreement to transfer arms to Ukraine, in exchange for military aid led to strained relations with Russia, further complicating its economic recovery amid international tensions.
Despite legislative efforts like the U.S.-Ecuador Partnership Act, economic condition remains fragile, exacerbated by austerity measures and systemic weaknesses. As geopolitical dynamics shift, Noboa strives for the military presence to stabilize his prospects for reelection while facing formidable obstacles in demonstrating effective governance for Ecuador’s pressing needs.
In conclusion, Ecuador under President Daniel Noboa is navigating a turbulent political and security landscape as the nation heads toward pivotal elections. While proposing foreign military involvement to combat drug trafficking, critics caution against purely militaristic approaches. The declining economic situation and social inequalities necessitate comprehensive strategies that extend beyond the military, prioritizing education and social development to address root causes of crime. As Noboa seeks an electoral boost, the reliance on traditional military strategies faces skepticism regarding efficacy and public support.
Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org
