South Sudan is at risk of renewed civil war due to escalating political tensions between President Kiir and First Vice President Machar, highlighted by violent clashes and key ministerial dismissals. Experts warn that a failure to address this crisis might undermine the fragile 2018 peace agreement established post-civil war. The need for dialogue and mediation has become increasingly critical to avert further conflict.
The political landscape in South Sudan is marred by escalating tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, raising alarms about a potential return to civil war. According to analyst Edmund Yakani, unresolved disputes might lead the nation back into ‘full-scale civil war.’ The conflict has been exacerbated by the recent dismissal of three ministers amid rising violent clashes and arrests of key figures, posing a significant risk to the 2018 peace agreement.
Tensions escalated following a militia attack on an army base in Nasir, instigated by a dispute over the longstanding presence of certain troops. The recent violence was ignited on March 4, when a militia linked to Machar seized control of the strategic town. Yakani notes, “The violence was triggered by disagreement on the replacement of long-staying soldiers of the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) in Nasir for a period of 10-plus years.”
The violence has resulted in the tragic loss of life, including UN personnel and military officials. Daniel Akech emphasizes that the risk of conflict is particularly high around Juba, where Machar’s forces are positioned. Akech cautioned that any aggressive actions from Kiir’s forces against these positions could lead to widespread violence, increasing the dangers for opposition leaders arrested in the capital.
Analysts point to a profound lack of trust between Kiir and Machar as a core issue fuelling ongoing instability. Yakani remarks that this distrust has been present since 2013, with ongoing accusations hindering effective political cooperation. The International Crisis Group has echoed these warnings, stating that South Sudan is on a precarious path toward renewed conflict while emphasizing the need for urgent mediation by entities like IGAD.
The UN Commission on Human Rights has expressed concern over the escalating violence and political tensions, signaling a direct threat to the 2018 peace agreement’s implementation. Yasmin Sooka, chair of the commission, advocates for leaders to refocus on the peace process and human rights, stating that the ongoing regression could dismantle years of progress towards democracy. Experts maintain that without a collaborative effort, the peace deal risks collapse, with the possibility of renewed civil war looming dangerously.
In summary, South Sudan is at a critical juncture, facing heightened political tensions that threaten to revive full-scale civil war. Key leaders, President Kiir and First Vice President Machar, are operating within a climate of deep mistrust, exacerbated by military escalations and aggressive political maneuvers. Urgent dialogue and mediation are necessary to navigate the perilous situation and uphold peace agreements to prevent further violence and instability.
Original Source: www.aa.com.tr
