The ongoing civil war in Sudan, involving the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces, has drawn external support from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, among others. Both Gulf monarchies have vested interests shaped by historical, strategic, and investment motivations. Their conflicting support for different factions complicates the situation, and prospects for resolution remain grim amidst external influences.
The civil war in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023, has drawn in external actors including Chad, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The escalating conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has led to a severe humanitarian crisis. In particular, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have provided support to differing factions within the country, while publicly denying these interventions.
Saudi Arabia’s involvement with Sudan dates back to its independence in 1956, flourishing through strong historical ties. Conversely, the UAE has focused on expanding its influence in Africa by investing in strategic sectors such as port logistics, especially after regional shifts following the Arab uprisings. Their interests intensified between 2014 and 2015, when both states sought to counter Iran’s influence in the Red Sea and Yemen.
Following the political upheaval in Sudan in 2019, both countries continued their indirect involvement. Saudi Arabia aligned with army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while the UAE supported the Rapid Support Forces under Mohamed Dagalo. Although they initially shared common interests, divergence emerged over time concerning views on political Islam, creating a rift that complicated their positions amidst the conflict.
The growing ties of Saudi Arabia and the UAE with Sudan are motivated by strategic interests in the region, as instability in Sudan poses threats to their national security. Their involvement is largely driven by concerns following the Arab Spring and changes in the regional power structure. Additionally, Sudan’s geographical importance as a link between the Sahel and the Red Sea makes it a significant player in Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics.
Both Gulf monarchies have invested heavily in Sudan’s agricultural sector, essential for their food security, with investments ranging between $1.5 to $2 billion. These investments are vital due to Sudan’s fertile lands and water resources. Given the current complexities of the conflict, prospects for negotiation remain bleak, with each party unwilling to concede, reinforcing a climate of hostilities influenced by external powers.
As Sudan emerges with two competing power centers, prospects for reconciliation are dim, forcing local actors to navigate an increasingly complex web of international relations. Federico Donelli’s research highlights these dynamics, showcasing the heightened stakes in Sudan for Gulf monarchies as they seek to establish their influence in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
The civil war in Sudan has significant implications for Gulf monarchies that have intervened in the conflict. Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s involvement stems from their historical ties, strategic interests, and investments in Sudan’s agricultural sector. The geopolitical importance of Sudan cannot be overstated, as instability here threatens the wider Horn of Africa. As hostilities persist, the possibility of a peaceful resolution appears increasingly unlikely, compounded by the regional dynamics and global power shifts.
Original Source: www.inkl.com
