The ONLF warns of a potential return to insurgency in Ethiopia’s Somali Region due to unresolved grievances and unmet promises from the 2018 peace deal. The organization’s dissatisfaction stems from the federal government’s violations and centralization of power, exacerbating regional tensions. Historical patterns of marginalization and corruption underline the fragility of the situation. Urgent action towards meaningful dialogue and reform is necessary to prevent further conflict and instability.
The situation in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State is increasingly precarious as the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) signals a potential return to insurgency due to unfulfilled promises stemming from the 2018 peace agreement with the federal government. ONLF Chairman Abdirahman Sheikh Mahdi has indicated that the group is reconsidering all options amidst deteriorating relations and alleged violations of the peace deal, which include restrictions on political engagement and ongoing resource disputes. The region is already marred by neglect, corruption, and repression, further heightening tensions.
The ONLF was formed in 1984 in response to long-standing marginalization experienced by Somalis in Ethiopia. Following the 1977-78 Ogaden War, the group embarked on a guerilla campaign against the federal government’s exploitation of the Ogaden Basin’s resources, which enriched the central government while leaving the Somali community impoverished. Despite housing the largest natural gas reserves in Ethiopia, the region has faced relentless state repression during the government’s counterinsurgency efforts that have displaced thousands and led to significant abuses.
Though the 2018 Asmara peace deal brought a fragile ceasefire, many of its stipulations have not been implemented, leaving the ONLF dissatisfied with the limited reintegration of ex-combatants and renewed restrictions on their political activities. The central authorities’ recent centralization of power and failure to uphold promises of autonomy have reignited historical grievances, pushing the ONLF towards a possible resurgence of armed resistance.
The ONLF’s recent revival is exacerbated by systemic inequities and political suppression under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Accusations of corruption and misgovernance within the Somali regional administration have prompted calls for accountability. The current administration, led by Mustafa Omar, faces criticism for exploiting resources while denying basic needs to local populations, contributing to perceptions of internal colonialism and fueling opposition.
The Ethiopian government’s response has included attempts at co-opting the ONLF, but such efforts met with failure as the grassroots support for the original leadership remains robust. This led to an escalation following military rhetoric directed from the government, undermining any political legitimacy previously gained by the ONLF. The organization withdrew from the National Dialogue Commission, branding it as a cover for authoritarian rule.
Debates around corruption and resource allocation have gained momentum, with the ONLF transforming its struggle into a broader fight against exploitation. The role of the Somali diaspora has intensified, providing both financial support and advocacy on global platforms to highlight abuses, thereby enhancing the ONLF’s visibility and legitimacy in the struggle for equity. The potential for renewed insurgency looms as Addis Abeba must revitalize the peace agreement to avoid catastrophic consequences.
To stave off conflict, the Ethiopian government needs to take concrete actions towards addressing grievances and restoring faith in the peace process. This includes implementing the Asmara accord and conducting meaningful anti-corruption initiatives. Trust deficits remain significant, but international and regional stakeholders must compel the government to engage in dialogue rather than resort to coercive strategies.
Given the current economic realities and ongoing conflicts in Ethiopia, the implications of unrest in the Somali region could destabilize not only Ethiopia but the broader Horn of Africa, potentially inviting extremist groups like Al-Shabaab to exploit the instability. Chairman Maaday’s warning that “We are out of patience” encapsulates the urgency of the situation. Ethiopia is at a crossroads, compelled to choose between dialogue or escalation, as the ramifications of further conflict are dire, affecting both regional security and humanitarian conditions.
In conclusion, the ongoing tensions in Ethiopia’s Somali Region demonstrate the critical need for the federal government to fulfill its commitments under the 2018 peace agreement with the ONLF. The resurgence of grievances among the Somali people, amplified by systemic mismanagement and political repression, threatens to destabilize the area further. To avert renewed conflict, Addis Abeba must engage in genuine dialogue, foster political inclusion, and ensure equitable resource distribution, thereby laying the groundwork for reconciliation and stabilization. The future of Ethiopia hinges on addressing these challenges, as the need for justice and equity remains paramount.
Original Source: addisstandard.com
