The resurgence of violence in South Sudan, escalating particularly in Upper Nile State, raises fears of a renewed civil war amidst historical tensions between the Nuer and Dinka communities. Political dynamics are strained by Ugandan military intervention and the withdrawal of opposition groups from negotiations. Immediate dialogue and international intervention are necessary to address grievances and prevent further conflict escalation.
Rising violence in South Sudan has reignited concerns of a civil war, rooted in centuries-old tensions between the Nuer and Dinka communities. The escalation of conflict in Upper Nile State has culminated in military interventions, notably from Uganda in March 2025, further complicating the already fragile political landscape. South Sudan’s opposition groups have withdrawn from negotiations aimed at establishing a joint military structure, jeopardizing the power-sharing agreement brokered in 2018 that ended a previous civil war.
The recent surge in hostilities was marked by attacks from the Nuer militia known as the White Army against government forces in Nasir County, resulting in the deaths of approximately 50 individuals. The government’s retaliatory air strikes, supported by Ugandan troops, have aggravated the situation, undermining previously achieved stability. These conflicts echo historical grievances stemming from the founding split within the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the 1990s, leading to the emergence of the White Army as a self-defending entity for the Nuer community.
Unlike the civil war of 2013, which was marked by severe reprisals and systematic targeting of Nuer communities by government forces, the current violence appears to be driven by immediate provocations rather than a centralized political strategy. This shift in dynamics was evident during a February clash over firewood collection that escalated into significant violence, culminating in a major defeat for the national army and the temporary capture of strategic positions by the White Army.
The government’s crackdown following these events has included arrests of key opposition figures, yet these measures are perceived as politically motivated rather than a genuine effort to stabilize the situation. To prevent a return to civil war, South Sudan requires a focused approach that prioritizes dialogue and community demobilization, alongside a halt to indiscriminate military operations against civilians.
Internationally, responses to the crisis have been largely condemnatory without substantial action. The United Nations has urged restraint without addressing the unique operational independence of groups like the White Army. The international community must advocate for a multifaceted solution that tackles the root causes of conflict and support efforts for peace and stability within the region.
Engaging community leaders in dialogue and creating confidence-building measures before the onset of the rainy season could provide a critical opportunity for de-escalation. Moreover, a committed international stance indicating strong disapproval of unjust arrests and advocating for an inclusive political transition is vital in navigating South Sudan away from the brink of renewed conflict.
The resurgence of violence in South Sudan signifies escalating tensions particularly between the Nuer and Dinka communities. With international interventions exacerbating the situation and the history of conflict influencing present dynamics, proactive measures such as dialogue, community engagement, and political inclusivity are essential. The arrest of opposition figures reflects a deeper issue that hinders peace efforts. Effective international support, properly addressing grievances and promoting genuine reconciliation efforts, is crucial for averting another civil war.
Original Source: eastleighvoice.co.ke
