Amid Iran’s declining influence in Syria and Lebanon, Turkey and Azerbaijan are advancing the Zangezur corridor project, aimed at enhancing trade links between Europe and Asia. The initiative has met resistance from Iran and Armenia, although Tehran has shown signs of softening its opposition. The evolving geopolitical landscape presents opportunities for Azerbaijan and Turkey, especially as they seek to strengthen economic ties and develop new trade routes.
As Iran faces challenges in Syria and Lebanon, Azerbaijan and Turkey are intensifying their collaboration on the Zangezur corridor project, crucial for their strategic goals. This initiative aims to establish a trade route linking Azerbaijan to Turkey via a 40-kilometer stretch of Armenian territory, which Iran opposes due to its potential impact on its own trade routes and regional influence. The meeting of Turkish and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in January highlighted their commitment to enhancing economic and trade relations amidst a shifting geopolitical landscape.
The Zangezur corridor symbolizes a broader Turkish-Azerbaijani vision of facilitating trade between Europe and China. Iran, concerned that this corridor would undermine its transportation routes, has expressed significant opposition to the proposal. Conversely, with Iran’s power waning following setbacks in the region, both Azerbaijan and Turkey perceive an opportunity to advance the corridor’s establishment that Iran currently hinders.
Analysts, such as Atilla Yesilada, note that Armenia’s resistance to the corridor stems largely from its reliance on Iranian military assurances. However, as pressure mounts on Iran—especially from the United States—Tehran’s dependency on friendly relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan may prompt a reevaluation of its stance. Huseyin Bagci suggests a strategic economic collaboration through the corridor might foster better relations among the three countries.
In early January 2023, Iranian diplomatic attitudes appeared more flexible regarding the Zangezur corridor, as one official indicated reduced opposition priorities. Moreover, Russia’s support for the corridor aligns with its efforts to establish new trade routes unaffected by sanctions, underscoring its importance to Moscow’s logistics strategy. However, the US position on this matter remains ambiguous, complicating the geopolitical framework surrounding the project.
Following Azerbaijan’s military successes against Armenian forces, there remains uncertainty over final peace agreements, yet the desire for peace talks persists. According to Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution, if Turkey actively participates in advancing the peace dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it could enhance its standing with the Trump administration. President Erdogan seeks to develop robust ties with the new US administration, emphasizing a cooperative relationship with Azerbaijan in their common pursuit of economic integration with Europe and China.
The geopolitical dynamics in the Caucasus region have shifted due to Iran’s declining influence amidst its struggles in Syria and Lebanon. This change has allowed Turkey and Azerbaijan to strengthen their alliance, particularly through the proposed Zangezur corridor. This corridor is positioned as a strategic trade route that would not only enhance economic relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey but could also impact broader trade connections between Europe and China. Iran’s opposition to the corridor reflects its concerns over losing a critical logistical pathway that it currently operates to evade sanctions, amid heightened tensions in the region.
The developments surrounding the Zangezur corridor reflect a significant shift in regional power dynamics. As Azerbaijan and Turkey move to solidify their economic ties through this initiative, they are also capitalizing on Iran’s weakened state. The success of the corridor project may redefine trade routes in Eurasia while simultaneously presenting Iran with choices about its regional alliances and strategies moving forward. The role of external powers like the US and Russia further complicates the potential outcomes of this initiative.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
