In 2024, China missed a crucial climate target, as emissions rose slightly despite renewable energy growth. The carbon intensity decrease fell short of expectations, raising concerns about adherence to the Paris climate agreement. Industrial growth continues to challenge progress, making future targets increasingly difficult to meet.
China has fallen short of a significant climate target for the year 2024, according to official data released by Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics. Emissions in the world’s second-largest economy experienced a slight increase, as coal continued to play a predominant role despite notable gains in renewable energy. Analysts expressed concerns that this trend indicates China is not adhering to its commitments outlined in the Paris climate agreement.
The NBS reported a 3.4 percent reduction in carbon intensity, which calculates carbon emissions in relation to GDP. However, this figure does not meet the official target of 3.9 percent. Additionally, China lags significantly behind in its objective to achieve an 18 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025.
While carbon emissions rose slightly year-over-year, they did not reach the levels seen in past years, leading to speculation that China might have reached its peak emissions prior to its 2030 target. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, noted that achieving a 65 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2030 will be extraordinarily challenging. He remarked, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.”
China, despite being the largest emitter of carbon dioxide, is also a leader in renewable energy production. The nation aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and attain net-zero status by 2060. Some analysts had anticipated that the combination of slowing economic growth and accelerated renewable energy installations would lead to reduced emissions in 2024. However, the analysis indicates that it may take additional years of data to conclusively determine emission trends.
The rapid expansion of China’s carbon-intensive industrial sector continues to impede progress toward its climate goals. Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst at the think tank Ember, pointed out that industrial growth has increased energy demand at a rate exceeding the development of clean energy infrastructure. He emphasized the necessity for reforms to ensure that industrial growth supports a sustainable energy future rather than undermining it.
The NBS report indicated an increase in total energy consumption by 4.3 percent compared to 2023. Coal, a significant contributor to carbon emissions, accounted for more than half of the country’s energy supply, although there was a marked increase in renewable energy usage last year. Yang stated, “China is fast approaching the stage where all incremental electricity demand will be satisfied by renewable sources.”
Beijing is expected to unveil details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for the years 2026 to 2030 later this year, which will likely outline updated emissions and energy goals. The Chinese government was also scheduled to submit its new emissions targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), under the Paris agreement in February. However, the submission deadline was missed, although UN officials anticipate most NDCs will be submitted this year.
In summary, China has not met its climate target for 2024, with emissions on the rise despite advances in renewable energy. The nation must significantly decrease carbon intensity to fulfill its commitments under the Paris agreement. The industrial sector’s growth poses challenges to achieving these goals. Furthermore, the upcoming Five-Year Plan and NDC submissions will be crucial in outlining China’s climate strategy moving forward.
Original Source: www.france24.com
