China’s emissions rose slightly in 2024, missing its climate targets, with a 3.4% reduction in carbon intensity compared to a goal of 3.9%. Despite significant renewable energy growth, coal remains predominant, hindering progress. Analysts warn that achieving future targets will be notably difficult as industrial growth fuels energy demand.
China has reported a slight rise in carbon emissions for 2024, failing to meet its climate goals despite achieving record renewable energy additions. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced a 3.4 percent decrease in carbon intensity, falling short of the targeted 3.9 percent reduction. These numbers indicate that China is lagging behind its objective of an 18 percent reduction in emissions from 2020 to 2025, contributing to concerns over its commitments under the Paris Agreement.
Although some experts speculate that China may have reached its peak emissions ahead of schedule, the data suggests it will be increasingly challenging to attain its aims of a 65 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2030. According to Mr. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.”
China’s industrial growth continues to hamper its climate progress as total energy consumption increased by 4.3 percent from the previous year. Coal remains a major contributor to emissions, providing over half of the country’s energy needs. Mr. Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember, noted that, “Rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the build-up of clean energy infrastructure.”
However, the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources is notable, leading to predictions that China may soon satisfy all new electricity demand through renewable means. Mr. Yang pointed out that once this milestone is reached, “coal power will start declining in absolute terms.” The government is expected to release its 15th Five-Year Plan later in 2025, which may provide clearer guidelines on emissions and energy targets.
China was also set to submit updated emissions targets known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris accord; however, it missed the February deadline, which is expected to be met by most nations by 2025. There remains significant speculation and analysis on how China will navigate its future climate commitments.
In conclusion, China faces significant challenges in achieving its climate goals, having missed key emissions reduction targets in 2024. The reliance on coal for energy remains a critical issue, despite advancements in renewable energy. With projections indicating that meeting long-term targets will require substantial decreases in carbon intensity, the upcoming Five-Year Plan and updated NDCs will be pivotal in determining China’s path forward in climate action.
Original Source: www.straitstimes.com
