Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Mogadishu signifies a pivotal moment in Ethiopian-Somali relations, following years of hostility spurred by Ethiopia’s engagement with Somaliland. Their discussions highlighted the importance of regional collaboration for stability and economic growth. While uncertainties linger with Eritrea and Egypt’s positions, the recent developments mark a crucial step towards forming a robust partnership between the two nations.
This week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed traveled to Mogadishu to meet with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, reciprocating a previous visit. This meeting is significant as it follows the signing of the Ankara Declaration in December 2024, marking the end of increased tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, which were especially pronounced after Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland.
PM Abiy’s visit is seen as a crucial step in solidifying Ethiopia-Somalia relations, which had been strained since January 2024. During discussions, PM Abiy emphasized the need for collaboration to tap into the region’s rich resources for mutual growth, stressing that integration is vital for shared aspirations. He stated, “Regional thinking and collaboration are essential, and we are ready to work with Somalia to make this a reality.”
Somalia has decided not to replace Ethiopia with Egypt in troop contributions to the African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission, confirming that Ethiopian troops will be included in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Analysts view this as a significant shift in regional diplomacy, especially given the previous alliance between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt.
Dr. Constantinos Berhutesfa, a political analyst, noted the historical volatility of relationships among Horn of Africa states, indicating that Ethiopia-Somalia normalization stems partly from uncertainty regarding Somaliland and its leadership. Somaliland’s new president has indicated a review of the MoU with Ethiopia, potentially allowing Ethiopia to distance itself from recent tensions.
The warming relations between Ethiopia and Somalia may hinder Egypt’s attempts to isolate Ethiopia. However, while relations appear to improve, the tripartite military agreement between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia remains contentious. Dr. Constantinos warns that Eritrea may react negatively to Somalia’s renewed ties with Ethiopia, casting doubts on the region’s future stability and prompting concerns about possible military confrontations due to ongoing disputes.
Notably, he remarked, “Ethiopia needs to question what Egypt and Eritrea are going to do.” This sentiment reflects ongoing tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as well as fears of further destabilization in Somalia, especially with the recent US military actions against Al-Shabaab.
Despite these challenges, analysts maintain that a military conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea is improbable due to the heavy toll of previous wars. Instead, the current climate may lead to political maneuvering. Dr. Constantinos urges Ethiopian leadership to prioritize internal stability and diplomatic relations to reestablish the nation as a regional power.
He emphasizes that regional and international diplomatic summits are essential for resolving crises in the Horn of Africa. The inclusion of various stakeholders, including the AU and IGAD, in organizing such a summit could present solutions, enhance Ethiopia’s regional image, and reaffirm its legacy in peacekeeping and stability across the Horn of Africa.
In conclusion, the recent diplomatic engagement between Ethiopia and Somalia represents a significant milestone towards restoring stability in the Horn of Africa. While challenges remain, particularly concerning Eritrea and Egypt, the normalization of relations reflects strategic efforts for regional integration and peace. The call for diplomatic initiatives underscores the necessity of a unified approach to tackle instability and enhance collaboration within the region.
Original Source: www.thereporterethiopia.com
