Hezbollah is navigating a crisis following a significant defeat against Israel, which has led to loss of personnel and resources. A large turnout at Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral indicates substantial support from Lebanese Shiites, potentially stabilizing Hezbollah’s influence. The group’s priorities include retaining its arms and ensuring reconstruction aid reaches affected communities, while navigating political pressures from the Lebanese government.
Hezbollah is currently in a critical state, having faced a significant defeat at the hands of Israel, which resulted in the loss of much of its military resources and personnel, including its prominent Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. The group is now confronted with increased Israeli operational freedom within Lebanon, domestic skepticism regarding its effectiveness, and a severed logistical link to support via Syria due to the unravelling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Within its primary support base among Lebanese Shiites, Hezbollah faces growing criticism, particularly as its actions during a recent war have exacerbated the economic woes that began with Lebanon’s financial crisis in 2019.
Amidst this turmoil, Hezbollah found a potential resurgence in popularity with the large turnout at Nasrallah’s funeral on February 23. This display of support may serve as a deterrent against any attempts by the Lebanese government to disarm the group or undermine its position within the country. The organization’s strength lies not only in its military might but also in its substantial backing from Lebanese Shiites, who comprise the largest demographic group in Lebanon, as reflected in its electoral success in the 2022 parliamentary elections.
Hezbollah’s support is rooted in its foundational principles articulated in the 1985 Open Letter, which emphasize engagement with the masses over territorial dominance. This approach aims to maintain legitimacy and influence within Lebanon’s complex sectarian framework while expanding its membership to ensure widespread backing. Additionally, the group recognizes that sustaining this popular support is paramount for achieving post-war objectives, particularly the imperative to retain its arms amidst changing political dynamics following the ceasefire with Israel.
The post-war reconstruction and the distribution of aid to affected communities have emerged as top priorities for Hezbollah. In a recent address, new Secretary-General Naim Qassem acknowledged the need for the Lebanese government to undertake significant responsibilities in facilitating reconstruction aid. The group aims to shift the burden of ensuring aid and its consequences from Hezbollah to the Lebanese state, emphasizing that reconstruction efforts should be prioritized once the situation with Israel stabilizes.
Hezbollah’s ability to navigate these challenges will depend on regaining the confidence of Lebanese Shiites, particularly those disillusioned by the recent conflicts. The group requires these arms to sustain its identity as “The Resistance” and secure continued support against both external threats and internal dissent. Despite Iranian financial backing, including substantial funding post-ceasefire, the group faces substantial damage estimates that far exceed available resources for reconstruction efforts. The dynamics surrounding Nasrallah’s funeral marked a crucial moment, ostensibly showcasing that Hezbollah’s support remains resilient amidst ongoing scrutiny.
The variety of estimates regarding attendance at Nasrallah’s funeral highlighted the significance of this event as a display of Hezbollah’s strength. Various reports painted a picture ranging from 450,000 to 1.4 million attendees, with many agreeing on an approximate turnout of 700,000 to 900,000. Such numbers stand in stark contrast to the 150,000 attendees at former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s funeral in 2005, illustrating a significant mobilization for Hezbollah, which serves to bolster its position against potential governmental action that could undermine its influence.
Following the funeral, the Lebanese leadership appears more inclined to heed Hezbollah’s position regarding arms control and reconstruction efforts, anticipating that the group retains enough support to discourage potential conflicts regarding its military capabilities. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s administration faces immense expectations to address numerous challenges, and his alignment with Hezbollah signals a consensus on navigating the politically delicate leanings within Lebanon, especially while seeking reconstruction and economic recovery avenues.
In summary, while Hezbollah’s future is not assured, the significant turnout reflecting its extensive Shiite support sends a clear message to both its domestic rivals and the government. Particularly, it underscores the potential collective repercussions of actions against the group, reinforcing its role in Lebanese politics as a prominent actor and advocate for the Shiite community.
Hezbollah’s recent challenges following its conflict with Israel have underscored a critical test of its domestic support and operational capabilities. The substantial turnout at Nasrallah’s funeral suggests that despite past adversities, the group maintains a robust base among Lebanese Shiites, projected to influence its ability to retain arms and secure reconstruction aid. While Hezbollah can leverage this support politically, the complexities of the Lebanese political landscape and the need for effective governance post-conflict remain critical factors that will shape its future trajectory in Lebanon.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
