Israel is shifting toward normalizing relations with Lebanon after weakening Hezbollah. U.S. mediation aims to resolve border disputes and release captured Lebanese, but Israel’s military presence complicates negotiations. Experts see implications for Hezbollah’s influence and regional politics, particularly regarding potential normalization with Saudi Arabia.
Israel’s renewed focus on normalizing relations with Lebanon comes after its recent military success against Hezbollah, raising significant diplomatic considerations following years of conflict. Official sources indicate that Lebanon has historically stated it would be the last Arab nation to establish diplomatic ties with Israel, questioning the viability of such an agreement now.
The impetus for this shift arises from a U.S. initiative, alongside France, that aimed at fostering talks between Lebanon and Israel to address multiple pressing issues. These discussions involve the release of Lebanese detainees and the resolution of longstanding land border disputes, especially concerning thirteen disputed border points along the Blue Line, established in 2000.
The recent U.S. diplomatic efforts have already yielded results, as five Lebanese individuals were released following the negotiation process initiated by the aforementioned ceasefire agreement. An anonymous Lebanese source indicated, “We want the return of all prisoners,” emphasizing that negotiations revolve around prisoner releases and the contested border points.
A military committee involving representatives from Lebanon, Israel, and the United Nations peacekeeping force oversees these negotiations, focusing on Israel’s withdrawal from five strategic positions it occupied during the recent conflict. Yet, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed the commitment to maintain control over these positions indefinitely, expressing a clear determination despite Lebanon’s demands.
Retired Brigadier General Hassan Jouni argued that the strategic positions should not be negotiated, highlighting that their retention by Israel may serve ulterior motives regarding security and political objectives, possibly linked to normalization talks. He remarked that Israel aims to leverage its advantageous regional position to impose conditions on Lebanon while underscoring the necessity for Lebanon to align its strategies with broader Arab nations.
The prospect of normalizing ties lies heavily on the context of U.S.-mediated border negotiations, as political experts like Hilal Khashan believe that Israel’s willingness to engage in these discussions signals an inclination towards signing a peace treaty with Lebanon. He asserted, “Without a Lebanese commitment to sign a peace treaty, Israel will never negotiate the withdrawal from the contested border areas.”
Meanwhile, Israel continues to exert pressure on Hezbollah, conducting regular attacks to weaken the militant group. Khashan posits that Hezbollah’s position is increasingly tenuous, reducing their ability to prevent Lebanon from pursuing normalization. Furthermore, the Lebanese government has reiterated its commitment to adhere to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, limiting Hezbollah’s capabilities to act against Israel.
Efforts to resolve the border conflict would significantly undermine Hezbollah’s rationale for its continued resistance against Israel. Jouni cautions that should diplomatic efforts fail, unforeseen consequences may arise. He advises that Lebanon should prioritize normalization with Israel only after Saudi Arabia makes similar moves, suggesting broader regional implications for peace in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Ultimately, experts believe that Saudi Arabia’s forthcoming reconciliation with Israel could reshape the existing dynamics, albeit Khashan suggests that any potential negotiations will likely yield unsatisfactory outcomes regarding Palestinian statehood. He notes that, contrary to expectations, Saudi Arabia will be the last Arab nation to secure a peace accord with Israel, challenging long-held assumptions about Lebanon’s stance on normalization.
In conclusion, Israel’s focus on normalizing relations with Lebanon is intensified by recent military actions against Hezbollah. Despite significant challenges, including multiple contested border points and political dynamics influenced by U.S. mediation, this development signals a potential shift in regional diplomacy. The commitment of Lebanon to full compliance with U.N. Security Council resolutions and the evolving role of Hezbollah complicate the path forward for normalization. Ultimately, the outcome may hinge on broader regional agreements, especially regarding Saudi Arabia’s eventual stance towards Israel.
Original Source: www.upi.com
