Israel and Lebanon are at a critical juncture, with Hezbollah weakened and Lebanon’s government seeking greater sovereignty. Recent military defeats, Iranian setbacks, and changing dynamics in Syria have contributed to this shift. Despite the brokered ceasefire and changing Lebanese government, Hezbollah’s enduring military identity presents ongoing risks for regional stability.
Israel and Lebanon find themselves at a pivotal moment, where Lebanon’s government is striving for sovereignty amidst a backdrop of Hezbollah’s weakening influence. Orna Mizrahi from the Institute for National Security Studies notes that recent Hezbollah defeats and a war-fatigued populace, especially its Shiite supporters, play significant roles in this shift. The internal displacement of over a million individuals reflects the ongoing challenges faced by Lebanon, contributing to a desire for stability.
The decline of Iran’s influence post-2024, due to lost proxies and the fall of the Assad regime, has further isolated Hezbollah. The new Syrian leadership, a radical Sunni, worsens relations with Hezbollah, limiting its operational capacity by obstructing Iranian supply channels. Lebanon’s recent government actions, which have included blocking Iranian flights carrying arms, signify a notable change in the governance approach towards foreign influence.
Hezbollah’s forced acceptance of a ceasefire exemplifies its weakened military standing. The appointment of General Joseph Aoun, who has U.S. support, adds to this dynamic as he diminishes Hezbollah’s governmental power. Israel is reportedly re-engaging with Lebanese factions, particularly the historically significant Christian Maronites, in a bid to stabilize its interests in the region, echoing strategies from the past.
Despite this apparent shift, experts caution against underestimating Hezbollah’s enduring ambitions. Although required to disarm under the ceasefire terms, the identity of Hezbollah is intricately linked to its military arm, which remains robust with approximately 50,000 fighters. Dror Doron emphasizes that any threat to its core operations will likely provoke renewed conflicts.
Israel remains vigilant and proactive in countering Hezbollah’s capabilities, intensifying its military presence in southern Lebanon while closely monitoring the group’s activities. Though U.S. support for Israel influences its strategy, concerns regarding fluctuating American foreign policy persist, especially with the ongoing negotiations over border disputes.
Amid these complexities, Hezbollah is projected to practice restraint, maintaining the ceasefire. Analysts indicate that while conditions may stabilize temporarily, the long-term prospects for peace between Israel and Hezbollah remain uncertain, with underlying tensions likely to persist.
Yossi Melman illuminates these intricacies, suggesting that while challenges abound, both Hezbollah and Israel will tread carefully to avoid further escalation.
In summary, the current geopolitical landscape between Israel and Lebanon illustrates a complicated relationship marked by Hezbollah’s diminished influence and the Lebanese government’s growing sovereignty. Despite a ceasefire, Hezbollah’s military identity and capacity threaten potential escalations. Continuing U.S. influence complicates negotiations and regional strategy, while a state of cautious restraint prevails, leaving the prospect of a fully normalized relationship between Israel and Lebanon an uncertain endeavor at this juncture.
Original Source: www.thejc.com
